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Intelligence Terminal Forecast Africa Publishers & Plugin API Access Intelligence Agents
Forecast Africa Beta
Trade Prediction Markets · Reputation Based · Data Verified

FORECAST
AFRICA

Africa’s first institutional trade prediction market

Will Apapa’s friction score drop below 80 by Q3? Will PAPSS volume surpass SWIFT on EGP/NGN? Will Dangote Refinery suppress Nigeria’s diesel import bill by 40%? Make your call. Every forecast is logged against your reputation. The operators who are right, consistently, get recognised.

12
Open markets
Q2–Q3 2026
847
Active
forecasters
73.4%
Top forecaster
accuracy
54
AfCFTA corridors
tracked
01
Data-Backed Questions
Every market is grounded in ROAD-1 pipeline data — UNCTAD friction scores, Afreximbank flows, PAPSS API volumes, CBN and SARB FX feeds. No opinion-only questions. Resolution is objective and verifiable.
02
Reputation, Not Money
Phase 1 is reputation only. Your handle is logged against every prediction. Accuracy tracked across all calls. Top forecasters are ranked publicly and get early access to Phase 2 — institutional-grade Pro Forecaster tier with deal-flow signals.
03
Institutional Phase 2
Phase 2 introduces forward signals API for banks, commodity traders, and insurers. Aggregate forecast data becomes a live signal layer. The analysts building the strongest track record in Phase 1 are the ones who get offered the institutional tier first.
Live Markets

Open predictions — Q2–Q3 2026

12 open markets across port friction, FX settlement, infrastructure, and policy. Free accounts can predict on 3 markets per session. Pro unlocks all 12 + priority resolution alerts.

Port Friction
Will Apapa Port’s friction score drop below 80/100 by end of Q3 2026?
📅 Resolves Sep 30 2026 👥 312 forecasts 📊 Africa Ports & Ships · CBN
🟢 Current: 91/100 — Requires 12+ point drop in 130 days
28%
probability YES
FX & PAPSS
Will PAPSS EGP/NGN settlement volume surpass SWIFT on this corridor by Q4 2026?
📅 Resolves Dec 31 2026 👥 187 forecasts 📊 Afreximbank · PAPSS API
🟡 Current PAPSS share: ~38% and growing 4.2pp/month
54%
probability YES
Port Friction
Will Tema port’s friction score fall below 35/100 before Apapa falls below 80/100?
📅 Resolves Dec 31 2026 👥 243 forecasts 📊 AfDB PIDA · Africa Ports & Ships
🟢 Tema currently 44/100 and trending down −1.8pp/month
71%
probability YES
Port Friction
Will Mombasa’s average cargo dwell time drop below 4 days in Q3 2026?
📅 Resolves Sep 30 2026 👥 156 forecasts 📊 Kenya Ports Authority · UNCTAD LSCI
🟡 Current: 5.1 days. SGR rail integration Phase 2 begins Aug 2026
42%
probability YES
NTB & Policy
Will the Lagos–Accra road NTB score drop below 70/100 by end of 2026 following ITAS expansion?
📅 Resolves Dec 31 2026 👥 98 forecasts 📊 UNCTAD NTB · ECOWAS ITAS
🔴 Current: 87/100. ITAS phase 2 scheduled Q3 but implementation delays common
31%
probability YES
Infrastructure
Will Lekki Deep Sea Port process more TEUs per month than Apapa by end of Q4 2026?
📅 Resolves Dec 31 2026 👥 211 forecasts 📊 NPA · Africa Ports & Ships · UNCTAD
🟡 Lekki at ~35% of Apapa TEU volume. Ramp trajectory accelerating Q2 2026
48%
probability YES
Capital & Finance
Will Dangote Cement (DANGCEM) list on a second African exchange before end of 2026?
📅 Resolves Dec 31 2026 👥 134 forecasts 📊 NGX · SEC Nigeria · Afreximbank
🟡 NGX YTD +54.55%. Secondary listing discussions ongoing per Bloomberg Africa
43%
probability YES
FX & PAPSS
Will NGN/USD parallel market spread fall below 3% (vs official rate) by Q4 2026?
📅 Resolves Dec 31 2026 👥 289 forecasts 📊 CBN · Afreximbank FX dashboard
🟡 Current spread: ~6.8%. CBN FX unification reforms ongoing since Jan 2024
47%
probability YES
Infrastructure
Will Ethiopia’s Djibouti–Addis Ababa rail freight volume grow more than 25% in H2 2026?
📅 Resolves Dec 31 2026 👥 77 forecasts 📊 ICTSI · Ethiopian Shipping & Logistics
🟡 ADR rail currently 35% cheaper than road. Djibouti friction score 42/100
61%
probability YES
NTB & Policy
Will AfCFTA Phase 2 (services and investment protocol) have formal ratification from 25+ members by Dec 2026?
📅 Resolves Dec 31 2026 👥 143 forecasts 📊 AfCFTA Secretariat · AU Commission
🔴 Current: 14 ratifications. 25+ requires significant acceleration
22%
probability YES
Capital & Finance
Will the Dangote Refinery IPO value the company above $40B on its first trading day?
📅 Resolves on IPO date 👥 318 forecasts 📊 NGX · SEC Nigeria · ROAD-1 estimate
🟡 ROAD-1 estimate: $40–50B. Largest African IPO in history if executed
66%
probability YES
FX & PAPSS
Will PAPSS go live in DRC and Angola (making it operational in the two largest Francophone economies) before Dec 2026?
📅 Resolves Dec 31 2026 👥 92 forecasts 📊 Afreximbank · PAPSS · BCC · BNA
🔴 Currently not live in either country. Both had 2025 target dates that slipped
19%
probability YES
🔒 4 of 12 markets locked · Pro unlocks all markets + resolution alerts + priority leaderboard ranking ·
Reputation Leaderboard

Africa’s top trade forecasters

Ranked by accuracy across all resolved markets. Forecasters who beat the crowd consistently get promoted to the institutional tier when Phase 2 launches.

Top Forecasters — Q2 2026 Resolved markets: 7 · Last updated today
#
Forecaster
Accuracy
Calls
Streak
1
🇳🇬 @freight_lagos
Lagos · Freight forwarder
91.2%
34
🔥 11
2
🇰🇪 @nairobi_ops
Nairobi · Port logistics
88.7%
28
🔥 8
3
🇪🇬 @corridor_intel
Cairo · Trade finance
86.4%
41
6
4
🇿🇦 @durban_desk
Durban · Commodity trading
84.1%
22
4
5
🇬🇭 @tema_forward
Accra · Customs broker
82.9%
19
3
6
🇸🇳 @dakar_intel
Dakar · DFI analyst
80.6%
16
2
7
🇨🇲 @douala_ops
Douala · Port agent
78.3%
12
1
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🏆 Top 10 forecasters at Phase 2 launch get offered the Pro Forecaster tier at founding-member rate — includes forward signals API access, deal-flow intelligence, and named attribution in ROAD-1 institutional reports.

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Build your reputation
on African trade

Free account. No payment required. Your forecasts are logged against your handle. Accuracy is tracked publicly. The analysts who are right on African corridor outcomes consistently will be offered institutional access first.

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Phase 2 — Pro Forecaster Tier
Forward signals API — aggregate forecast data for banks & insurers
Named attribution in ROAD-1 institutional intelligence reports
Deal-flow signals — M&A and DFI pipeline intelligence
Priority resolution alerts before public announcement
Only the top 10 forecasters at Phase 2 launch get founding-member access. The shortlist is determined entirely by prediction accuracy from Phase 1.
Market Methodology

How markets resolve

Every market has an objective resolution criterion. No editorial judgment. The data either crosses the threshold or it doesn’t.

Port Friction Markets

Resolved using ROAD-1 friction score pipeline pulling from Africa Ports & Ships vessel data, CBN weekly port reports, and Maersk API dwell time averages. Scores updated 2× per week. Threshold breach confirmed on 5 consecutive business days.

FX & PAPSS Markets

Resolved using Afreximbank quarterly settlement reports and PAPSS API volume data. SWIFT comparison uses SWIFT gpi Africa traffic data (quarterly). Parallel rate vs official confirmed from CBN weekly data and Nairametrics mid-market rate.

NTB & Policy Markets

Resolved using UNCTAD NTB Africa database quarterly updates, ECOWAS ITAS certification logs, and World Bank Doing Business Africa metrics. AfCFTA ratification from AU Commission official gazette only — no media reports.

Infrastructure & Capital Markets

Infrastructure resolved from port authority monthly throughput reports (NPA, KPA, Transnet). Capital markets resolved from exchange official data (NGX, JSE, GSE) or SEC/NSE regulatory filings. IPO valuations from first-day weighted average trading price.

⚠️ Dispute window: 5 business days after resolution announcement. Send documented evidence to predictions@road-1.io. All disputes reviewed by editorial board within 10 business days.
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